NEW rotation model

Beginning this week I am introducing a new Rotation Model aiming to scan the SPDR sectors.

Let me know if this is of interest to you or if you would be interested in scanning other group (e.x iShares, etc)

I guess I'll call this model SPDR model which scans these ETF's:

Aerospace & Defense ETF	XAR
Biotech ETF	XBI
Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR	XLY
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR	XLP
Energy Select Sector SPDR	XLE
Health Care Equipment ETF	XHE
Health Care Select Sector SPDR	XLV
Health Care Services ETF	XHS
Homebuilders ETF	XHB
Industrial Select Sector SPDR	XLI
Materials Select Sector SPDR	XLB
Metals and Mining ETF	XME
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF	XES
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF	XOP
Pharmaceuticals ETF	XPH
Retail ETF	XRT
Semiconductor ETF	XSD
Software & Services ETF	XSW
Technology Select Sector SPDR	XLK
Telecom ETF	XTL
Transportation ETF	XTN
Utilities Select Sector SPDR	XLU

Beginning to Update

I said that I would dedicate time again to the QQQQ signals, but it seems I will be equally busy until the end of the year, but again I'll do my best to keep posting in Tweeter.

Anyway, just ran my Profunds model and found that ALL of them went to CASH except:

- Rising rates . RRPIX
- Ultra Japan. UJPIX
-and short Gov. plus, GVPIX.
NQ and Es systems are long since Oct 21 st

Week 21

NQ and ES system:

Both turning to short today.

Week 52

Short term trend:

Nasdaq and Russel came back to the green zone while S&P is almost there.




NQ & ES systems:

Both long, ES went to long on Dec 17 4.3% profit and NQ on 21 st Dec for 1.8% profit.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25483899

Profunds system:

I´m going to initiate a portfolio of funds instead of indicating the best trend of the week, at least somebody would like to know it.

This portfolio will be evaluated every week and in case there is change in my rankings the portfolio will be rebalanced with the newcomer(s) using the Efficient Frontier(EF).

So, we begin this portfolio dividing a capital of 9000 USD among the 3 best trends according to the EF, In this case only two funds go to the portfolio: Enpix and Bmpix.

IMS system = NQ system

Below you will see the results (3 last real, the rest back tested) of the current version of the system, V 3.0

As I have indicated, I've been focusing in increasing the numbers of trades balanced with the trade fees. The model considers an initial investment enough to buy 100 shares of QQQQ, from them, it reinvests all the proceeds in the next trade. Commission is fixed in $ 9.99 per trade.

The theoretical result YTD is 52.7%. If you follow all the post of the living trades we have posted, you will notice that we've had 4 versions this year (really minor tweaks) and the real result YTD is a mixture of using Profunds (Tepix) and options, around 39%. For this latest version we will be leaving as vehicle only QQQQ shares.

As you know we began this blog more that a year ago, at that moment the system was a trend follower. Looking for reducing draw downs and more trades per month (ideally 4). Slowly the system has been moving to my surprise, into a reversal system and nowadays it does not have any trend following component !.

Due to that fundamental change in the concept of the system and that I am now finishing another model to track other markets (non Nasdaq) based on the same concept, I think the most appropriate is to change the name from now on to NQ system.

So, this is the last picture of the IMS system V3, welcome NQ systemV3:

Signal update

Forgot to mention, that the new Profunds pairs system requires a daily update of the program, therefore a switch of fund can be signaled any day. I will post only the signals that change. Want to insist that this is a beta testing. Remains to be seen if this is a worthwhile way to trade Profunds.

For the Ims system we have "finished" the integrated system which gave (back test) more signals and profits (2006=100 % instead of 65%). I will be posting only weekly the results of this system while I think the best way to post them on line, but of course all depends on the results of this "live" period. This systems works much better executing at the opening not at the end of the day.

Also want to insist that this blog is only for my personal trades and learning sake. If someone is reading this blog he or she must stick to whatever works for him/her.

Ok, having said all that, the Profunds pairs signals a switch from Udpix to Uwpix (bad news for the Dow??) to be executed today.

Week 4

IMS system:

Remains short QQQQ.

Profunds system / pairs (new):



The best trends are: Repix, Phpix, Bmpix and Hcpix. I will be opening a position with Bmpix tomorrow.

I will be dropping this system from the blog and replacing it with the Profunds pairs system. I believe this system will be given much more profits. The main idea is to stay always in the market for the selected funds as they seem to have a good volatility and fit my trend program: NqStocks ver1 build c. This program does not compare funds but it tries to identify trend reversals. However I am not that happy yet as I found that sometimes got whipsawed, which I hate, therefore I will be only posting the status of the system and will follow it paper trading. Maybe I will need to drop it off and put back the Profunds system. Here is the Profunds pairs:



Industry Leader:

This week DJT.

Week 3

IMS system.

Remains short QQQQ. This system has proved, to me, that it is very good at catching tops and bottoms. What I'm now looking for is to catch more swings between those signals. Currently I'm testing several ideas. Most of them are pointing to a long position right now. Below the "market mode" gave a long on 5th Jan, that it was confirmed in the trend chart on 11 th Jan, with the breakout of 44.31. To complicate matters, the trend tracker also indicated a change to long on 9 th Jan.

Again, the challenge is to integrate them in a better system, if you have several watches you never know the time. My guess is that if by Jan 18 we don't have a down move, the IMS will be joining the bull team.

Profunds system.

With all that bullish activity last week, a lot of funds reverted their down movement. I like very much Inpix and Bipix among them. However, few days don't impress our consistency filter !. The only funds that pass are Hcpix, Tepix and the devious Smpix. I still have to decide if I'm going to open a long in Tepix or run the program again mid week.

Industry leader.

Again I have to find some time to study this system. It had a 52 weeks performance of 89% profit. The task here is to identify the vehicles that best represent the indexes that integrate the program.

This week the leader is ^IXFN : Nasdaq other finance group.

Week 48

IMS system:

Short signal in QQQQ.
We have been working with this program in two areas:
- Integrating this system with our trend tracker program, results are really "exciting". Back testing of last 7 years successful, next step is to optimise parameters avoiding "over fitting".

- Optimising the parameters of the IMS program alone avoiding the so called over fitting, any optimisation should only improved past results as a whole (7 years) but also in individual years.

Profunds system:

Interestingly enough the Internet fund is the best trend, but other programs seems to indicate consolidation at least, so we pass. This week the fund with all the green lights are: uupix, gvpix, fdpix, and bmpix.
Bmpix has given so far the expected results. We keep it, tracking day by day its trend.
As we wanted some exposure to non us markets we will open tomorrow Uupix, and as a third fund in our portfolio we choose Gvpix although we certainly expect a lot of Fdpix.
As said in previous post, enpix is a long term position (we hope ! ).




Lead Industry:
This week the honor goes to $xau. Last week Iyt didn't have the result we expected, it had a negative variation of 0.1% in price.

Updated signals

IMS system:
Long

No so updated !!. I skipped to update the system and I found today that we got a long signal yesterday to be executed as usual eod. To keep consistency with the reporting system of the program, that date will be kept in the records, in reality I will be executing the signal today eod. BTW I will do it using Tepix as vehicle not QQQQ. That means that last signal was a looser (-4.6%), the second this year.

I will be working trying to integrate the IMS system with my trend program, see below, that has been long in QQQQ since Aug 16. However look how the trend strength is close to maximum levels, maybe further up move is limited. The aim is to validate the IMS system with the trend in this program, "eye balling" suggest it is a good idea but only back testing will give us a prove.

Objective

In this blog I will be posting two technical signals found with the methods I am either developing or that I trust.

1. Every week a new signal for Profunds funds will be issue. Taking as a bas 1000 USD, these signals have generated until today 55 % return. (1 year span)

2. For the ETF QQQQ, it will be posted the long or short signal as soon as they are generated by the program. Taking as a base 1000 USD, the system has generated more than 5000%, you are reading right!, since inception January 2, 2000.

As indicated in the disclaimer those signal are not meant to be followed by anybody, they are solely the record of my trades.