Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Week 40

Short term trend:

In the long side.


IMS system:

Long Q's.

Profunds System:

Well, what can I say about last week performance ?




Best trends this week: Pmpix, Inpix, Uupix. Ujpix is showing a promising trend.

Industry Leader:

NWX, Networks.

Friday, September 28, 2007

Signal change

IMS system:

Long Q's.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Week 39

Short term trend:

The Fed cut pushed the trends to the long side.



IMS system:

Despite that, the market remains in extreme lectures keeping our short signal.

Profunds system:

Results of last week are:




Best trends this week: Pmpix, Uupix and Bmpix

Industry leader:

Xau, Gold.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Week 38

Short term trend:

Favouring the short side.



IMS system:

Keeps short the Q's.

Profunds System:

Last week results are:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Best trends this week: Pmpix and Enpix.


Industry leader :

RLX, Retailers

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Week 37

Short term trend

Yesterday both SPY and RUT went to the short side, the Q's still hanging on.



IMS system:

It is now short in the Q's.

Profunds system:

Best trends this week Gvpix and Pmpix.

Industry leader:

XAU, Gold

Monday, September 10, 2007

The market short term trend

If you don't have the time to follow the market action day by day, it is useful to know what is the current trend in a short time frame, say 5 to 7 days.

Aiming to answer that, I have developed sort of a short term indicator that I'll be posting every Monday, hopefully.

Here the first view applied to the fte's QQQQ, SPY and Rut. As you can see the long side (green) is favored now...


Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Week 36

IMS system:

Switching to long in the Q's.

I will be posting this week some interesting charts about short term trends

Profunds system:

Best trend: uupix,
Last week results: Srpix -2.5% and Gvpix 0.3%

Industry leader:

RLX, Retailers

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Week 35

IMS system:

Still short Q's. Expecting a switch this week.

Profunds system:

Best trends are: Srpix (keep it) and Gvpix.

Industry leader:
XAL, air lines

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Signal change

IMS system:

Got short signal yesterday. Projected price today 45.73

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Week 33

IMS system:

Remains long.

Profunds system:

Best trend is Srpix. last week trend performance of Fdpix was -0.6%.

Industry leader:

Besr performer was Uty, utilities.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Week 32

IMS system:

Keeps long.

Btw, I haven't posted the P&L of last signals. Here it is:

Short from Jul 9 to Jul 13= - 1.5%
Long from Jul 13 to Jul 23= 1.2%
Short from Jul 23 to Jul 31= 2.5%

Profunds system:

Best trend is Fdpix.

Industry leader:

UTY, Utilities.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Week 31

IMS system:

Switching to long in the Q´s.

Profunds system:

The sell off last week is blocking the system signals until the trend consistency filter allows it. Anyway here you can see what´s the position of your fund in my ranking:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Results of last week trends:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:

SOX, semis.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Week 30

IMS system:

Is in short signal.

Profunds system:

Best trends this week remain: pmpix, uupix,enpix.

Results of last week:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Industry leader:

Xau, Silver & gold

Monday, July 23, 2007

Signal change

IMS system:

Reversing to short.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Week 29

IMS system:

The system is long but in extreme conditions now, probably to get a short signal tomorrow. The last signal (short) got a loss of 1.5%.

Profunds system:

To keep consistency the results are calculated until last Monday.
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Best trends this week are: uupix, pmpix and bmpix. We keep our current positions enpix and uupix.

Industry leader:

Xau, Gold and Silver

Monday, July 16, 2007

Signal change

The IMS signal had a change to long last Thursday to be executed at Friday opening.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Week 28

IMS System:

Catch up... the system went short on 21 st June and reversed long on 28th, 0.5% loss, then went short yesterday at the opening. 2.9 % profit. The signal is now short.

Profunds system:

Best trends are: pmpix, uupix and enpix.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Week 26

IMS system:

Keep its short signal in the Q's.

Profunds system:

No fund met trend criteria this week.

Results of last week were:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:
XAL, airlines.

I will be in holidays couple of weeks...

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Signal Change

IMS system:

Short signal in the Q's.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Catch up - Week 25

First I´m sorry, very busy over here, actually I will not be able to run the programs on Tuesday as I'll be out of town and planning holidays for the next couple of weeks, so let me tell you what´s going on...

IMS system:

The system got a long signal on 8 th June, now the thing is I got a new version, V2.2. As you know nothing has been broken but I´m continually looking for more trades up to my ideal target which is 1 trade per week. Whether you believe the markets are manipulated or not, I believe you can find the clues of market movements.... Both the V2.1 and 2.2 had this long signal same day , sorry again I don´t trust anybody who post things after the fact, but in order to keep consistency with the programs records don´t have any choice. This version is showing a profit of 29% and this is how it looks... I´ll be posting signals of the new version but keeping in the background the old one.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Profunds system:

Well, this rotation model continue to live up to its expectations, here the results until Friday

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

I lost patience with Lvpix and closed it last Friday, profit 2.5%

Best trends are Enpix, Bmpix, Uupix

Monday, June 11, 2007

Updated signal

Short of time these days... I´ll update on Wednesday. Be careful out there

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Week 23

IMS system:

Remains short.

Profunds system:

Best signals are: idpix,enpix,bmpix and uupix . Be careful though, my projections program are expecting a tough period !!

Results last week were very good:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

We are ready to close lvpix and holding enpix.

Industry leader:

REIT

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Week 22

IMS system:

Still short QQQQ.

Profunds system:

Due to last week swings, conservative filters are blocking many funds. The best ones this week are enpix, wcpix and cnpix. I am holding my longs but ready to close in any weakness.

Results last week:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:

REIt

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Signal update

IMS system:

We got a short signal.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Week 21

IMS system.

Stays long in QQQQ. last signal execution was break even (shorted 46.49 closed 46.50)

Profunds System.

Excellent week for our recs. results were:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

This week best trends are: enpix, inpix, uupix and wcpix.

Industry leader:

XOI, oil.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Week 20

IMS system:

As posted, the long signal was closed at the opening on 9 th May (3% profit), and it has been short since then until today when we got a long signal.

Profunds system:

To keep consistency, below the results of best trends until Tuesday opening. If you consider the last two days, results are much better.

The best trends are: Enpix, Tcpix, Uupix and Utpix.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:

DDX, Disk Drives

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Week 19.

Sorry, was out of town....

IMS System:

Short signal to be executed today.

Profunds System:

Remains with Utpix and Enpix.

Results of last week were:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:

XAL, airlines

Sunday, May 06, 2007

Signal executions and S/R projections

Notice that QQQQ P&L has not been updated, here it is:

March 20 short @ 43.26, closed Apr 2 nd= 0.94% loss.
Apr 2nd long @43.67, closed Apr 11= 2.22% profit.
Apr 11 short @44.64, closed Apr 17=1.13% loss.
since Apr 17 long @ 45.15

Closed bmpix May 3rd @54.24, 4.3 % profit. Current position with profunds=Lvpix.

As indicated in the previous post, below is a S/R projection for the Q. They allow me to close positions even if I don´t get a reverse signal from the system. I use those projections mostly with the Profunds system, that is why when an opened positions is not the best trend any longer still may remains open in my portfolio. This method allows to held positions longer and eventually extend profits.

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Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Week 18

IMS system:

Long QQQQ.

Profunds system:

Utpix, came again to top of the list together with enpix and idpix.

I was asked what criteria do I use for keeping a trade open and/or determine exit points. What I use is a forecast or projection of Sup & Res. lines. When prices get out of those projected limits they will eventually re-draw the trend of the stock against my position, that is when it is closed. I will post this week some price projections (S&R lines really) to show the concept.

The results of last week trends are:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:

OSX, oil services.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Week 17

IMS system:

Keeps long QQQQ.

Profunds system:

Best trends Blpix, Lvpix, Mlpix

Results of last best trends:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Insdustry leader:

^XBD, Broker dealers

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Week 16

IMS system:

Long signal for the QQQQ to be executed today.


Profunds system:

The best trends are: bmpix, tcpix, utpix and uupix

Results of last week

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:
^DRG, drugs

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Signal change. w 15

IMS system:

Got a short signal (QQQQ) to be executed today at the opening.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Profunds w.15

Profunds system:

Another good week for the system. Below the last week results.

I will be posting a max of 4 funds per week as this is a "reasonable" quantity for a diversified portfolio if desired...

Best trends this week are: utpix, enpix, tcpix and bmpix. We kept our bmpix position with long term expectations.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Monday, April 09, 2007

Week 15

IMS system:

Remains long QQQQ.

Profunds system to be posted tomorrow.

Industry Leader:

XAL, airlines and Nasdaq biotech.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Profunds w 14.

Profunds System:

The best trends this week are: bmpix, fdpix,enpix, utpix and tcpix.

The performance of last week best trend was:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Monday, April 02, 2007

Week 14

IMS system:

Long signal to be executed today. Interesting, I was expecting more down at least to 42.6.

The profunds will be updated tomorrow (from Tuesday to Tuesday)

Industry leader:

TNX, 10 yr treasury bonds

Monday, March 26, 2007

Week 13

IMS ssytem:

It has short signal for QQQQ.

Profunds system:

Pity we didn't go long with Utpix, had a good week and this one is the best trend together with Bmpix. We will open a long position the first up day from now and for that we will monitor: $djusbm and $djusut.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:

Ixis, Nasdaq insurance.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Week 12

IMS system:

Short signal to be executed today.

I have received quite a few private mails on the ihub board, but my account does not allow to reply them. Feel free to leave comments here or send me an e mail to: technitrend@gmail.com

Next weekend I will post a catch up of the performance of this system so far.

Profunds System:

The filters are still blocking the best trends. You can see below that best trend now is for Utpix however the following chart shows that utpix is still with red points (that´s the filter).

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:

Xau, gold.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Week 11

IMS system:

I thought it was a good idea to post the signals in an independent site which tracks them in a verifiable manner, so I moved the signals to Collective 2:
" We are not affiliated with the trading system developer. We merely verify the results of a trading system, by measuring a system's advice versus real-time market prices". You can have a look at : www.collective2.com/go/ims



The results of the last version since Feb, more trades, are:



However they only track for free the first few trades and that is why the last signal, long, that reversed the short at 42.92 it is not there and that means I will have to come back to this blog at least you know a free tracking site ??.

Profunds system:

Our conservative filters block trend signals for this week, so we stay in the sidelines, although I can tell the best trends are: wcpix, utpix, smpix and unpix.

The performance of last week signal was:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry leader:
OSX, Oil services.

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Week 10

Signal execution:

What a week !! we closed as planned repix (62.49, 2 % loss), but also in a rush, http://tinyurl.com/32mxwd, we closed all positions: uupix (36.30, 5.68% profit) , bmpix(52.49, 14.78% profit).
Interesting, we wanted to open a small long term position in Pmpix but can´t find the execution. Currently checking with the broker. I expect a good time for PM around June.
Profunds System:
Best trends next week: Fdpix, Gvpix, Brpix. Look at this !!:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
The performance of last week trend was:
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Industry Leader:
IRX, 13-WEEK TREASURY BILL.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Week 9

Profunds System:

We will be closing Repix. The best trends for this week are: Pmpix, Ujpix, Smpix and Enpix

The performance of last week best trends was:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Industry leader:

DJC, commodities.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Week 8

Signals execution:

As indicated on 5 th Feb, opened Repix at 63.74. Current positions: Repix, Uupix and Bmpix.

Also on 5th Feb, long signal to be executed at the opening (The last version works better at the opening instead of eod as already indicated) 44.14. This signal was reversed on 9 th Feb, also indicated, at 44.57. (profit 0.97%). On Feb 14 was reversed to long at 44.63 (loss 0.13%). This is the current status of the signal.

Currently I am back testing a potential improvements to the IMS System. I will not be posting more signals until I finish the evaluation.

Profunds System:

Best trends are Bmpix, Mlpix, Tcpix, Uupix, Unpix and Utpix.

This system continues to perform very well. As explained, I run the programs weekly but as soon as one of my open positions is showing a profit above 10 % I monitor it daily, with other programs, to close the position if any weakness is observed (the fear factor).

I think is interesting to report what was the weekly P&L of the previous winners, so here it is:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry Leader:

DJT, Transports

Monday, February 12, 2007

Week 7

IMS system:

Gave short signal last Friday. I have pending to post the results (P&L) of last signals and charts. (I´ve been kind of busy lately).

Profunds system:

As indicated we had no choice but to open long positions with Repix Monday last week.

All trends had deterioration at the end of the week. Pmpix has been showing more strength.

The best trends for this week are in: Repix, Mlpix, Utpix and Pmpix.

Industry Leader:

DJU, utilities.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Week 6

IMS system:

The intermediate term program, Ver 2, gave a long signal to be executed at the open of Monday while the short term program and newest version, Ver 2.1, remains long in QQQQ. I will be posting the execution of the last signal and from now on will be working here only with the newest version.

Profunds system:

Due to the inconsistency of signals between one fund and its inverse we can not apply the system as we desired. As an example, the short signal we found for Udpix was not matched for a long signal in its inverse fund, the same happened with Enpix and Uupix. In such cases maybe the best option is going to cash but that invalidates the profits projection which justify the Profunds pairs as system. We will continue looking into that, but we will drop it from the blog and bring back the previous Profunds system, although it is more time consuming it has proven be a profitable one.

The "old" Profunds system repeats its long signal for: Repix, Bmpix, Cnpix and Tcpix. The mid cap funds had the good week we anticipated and it seems it will continue.
Based on Monday action we will be opening positions with Repix or Cnpix.

We will keep open eyes with Uupix and the 35 price level.

Special attention to Pmpix which needs to show follow trough above 39´s and has a weak trend signal.
Industry leader:
Transport Nasdaq, IXTR.

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Week 5

IMS system(s):

Ver 1: intermediate time frame, is still short in QQQQ.
The new ver 2, which aims to capture more swings, is long since last week, Jan 23 (at 43.64). Probably the best idea is not to post this signal until we have more live results.
Any comments ?

Profunds Pairs:

The signal situation for next week is:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

As indicated Udpix gave a short signal, then we exchanged fund. No profit is indicated because the long signal came from last year.
On Thursday we had also short signals in Unpix and Ujpix to be executed last friday. Finally on Friday we got short signals for Enpix and Uupix to be executed tomorrow Monday.

We have a new concern with this system, it appears that the relation betwen one fund and its inverse is not linear, that is if we got a short signal not necessarily we will have at the same time a long in the inverse fund.

We keep in parallel the Profunds system which shows the best trends for this week in Repix, Pmpix, Bmpix, Tcpix and a nice recovery in the mid cap funds.

Industry leader:

This week Xau.

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Signal update

Forgot to mention, that the new Profunds pairs system requires a daily update of the program, therefore a switch of fund can be signaled any day. I will post only the signals that change. Want to insist that this is a beta testing. Remains to be seen if this is a worthwhile way to trade Profunds.

For the Ims system we have "finished" the integrated system which gave (back test) more signals and profits (2006=100 % instead of 65%). I will be posting only weekly the results of this system while I think the best way to post them on line, but of course all depends on the results of this "live" period. This systems works much better executing at the opening not at the end of the day.

Also want to insist that this blog is only for my personal trades and learning sake. If someone is reading this blog he or she must stick to whatever works for him/her.

Ok, having said all that, the Profunds pairs signals a switch from Udpix to Uwpix (bad news for the Dow??) to be executed today.

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Week 4

IMS system:

Remains short QQQQ.

Profunds system / pairs (new):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

The best trends are: Repix, Phpix, Bmpix and Hcpix. I will be opening a position with Bmpix tomorrow.

I will be dropping this system from the blog and replacing it with the Profunds pairs system. I believe this system will be given much more profits. The main idea is to stay always in the market for the selected funds as they seem to have a good volatility and fit my trend program: NqStocks ver1 build c. This program does not compare funds but it tries to identify trend reversals. However I am not that happy yet as I found that sometimes got whipsawed, which I hate, therefore I will be only posting the status of the system and will follow it paper trading. Maybe I will need to drop it off and put back the Profunds system. Here is the Profunds pairs:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Industry Leader:

This week DJT.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Week 3

IMS system.

Remains short QQQQ. This system has proved, to me, that it is very good at catching tops and bottoms. What I'm now looking for is to catch more swings between those signals. Currently I'm testing several ideas. Most of them are pointing to a long position right now. Below the "market mode" gave a long on 5th Jan, that it was confirmed in the trend chart on 11 th Jan, with the breakout of 44.31. To complicate matters, the trend tracker also indicated a change to long on 9 th Jan.
Again, the challenge is to integrate them in a better system, if you have several watches you never know the time. My guess is that if by Jan 18 we don't have a down move, the IMS will be joining the bull team.
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Profunds system.

With all that bullish activity last week, a lot of funds reverted their down movement. I like very much Inpix and Bipix among them. However, few days don't impress our consistency filter !. The only funds that pass are Hcpix, Tepix and the devious Smpix. I still have to decide if I'm going to open a long in Tepix or run the program again mid week.
Industry leader.

Again I have to find some time to study this system. It had a 52 weeks performance of 89% profit. The task here is to identify the vehicles that best represent the indexes that integrate the program.
This week the leader is ^IXFN : Nasdaq other finance group.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

2006 Results

Coming back from holidays...The results of the IMS system were:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Good enough I think, although those are not my personal results, because I finished the system in late June and I played the signals, as indicated several times, using options and Tepix as vehicle. For example, the last long signal (previous version) I used Tepix, and for the current short used QQQQ puts. As I have now not only the back tested but the real experience, I will be playing it mainly with Uopix and Uspix.

Together with the Profunds system and counting losses from early last year, my net result was about 22%.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Week 1

IMS system:

Remains short. The current signal was obtained using and optimised version of the program, build F. The chart below shows the signal of this version, that is why it doesn't show the loosing trade we reported last November.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Profunds system:

Many stocks and indexes had an "spike" activity on Dec. 28 that canceled our long signal in Snpix, therefore we closed it. That unusual activity also gave long signals for precious metals that it was canceled also in the next two days.

The best trend is in Uupix, it is our only long position currently.

Industry leader:

5 years treasury note.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Week 52

IMS system:

Remains short QQQQ.

Profunds system:

As indicated closed uupix at 32.58(10.3 % profit), closed enpix at 41.97 (4.2 % profit) and opened its inverse fund snpix at 23.84.

For this week the best trends are: ujpix, fnpix and sppix.

Profunds pairs:

We are considering changing the profunds system to using only funds that have their inverse match, in this way we will always be in the market with the best vehicle at that moment according not to the trend strength but to the signal of the integrated program. For example we will be at any moment either long or short with the Nikkei (Ujpix-Ukpix), Oil & gas (Enpix-Snpix), etc.

Doing some back testing, it seems this strategy is far more rewarding than jumping from best trend to best trend.

Industry leader:

This system continues to show a great performance, we need to put some time on it to play it some way, currently we are only posting the result.

This week the best trend is IRX, 13 week treasury bill.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Signal Execution

As indicated before the Profunds system is evaluated weekly. However I am starting to use more and more the integrated program (have to think in a name !).

This program gave me a short signal for enpix and also for uupix, so I took my chances and closed uupix while exchanged enpix for its inverse version: snpix.

I'm trusting this new devlopment so much because "he" also told me to short SJT, MRVL, PMPIX and GOOG days ago. So, this time is for real. we shall see.

Maybe this blog is becoming messy?

Monday, December 18, 2006

Week 51

IMS system:

Remains short QQQQ

Profunds System:

Best trends Ujpix.

As indicated we reacted to trend deterioration last week but only to gvpix, which was closed on Tuesday (we were b.even in this position). LastFriday we closed bmpix (profit 9.1%) a weak ahead than expected, as this week we will have no time to follow our positions.

Industry leader:

30 years treasury bonds.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Week 50

IMS system (v.2):

Remains short QQQQ

Profunds System:

None of the funds passed filters although the most promising trends are: ujpix,repix,lvpix and cnpix.

As our positions in bmpix,enpix and uupix are still strong we keep them, but closely watched to react any time this week.

Industry leader:

5 years treasury notes.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Week 49

Signal executed:

The combination of our trend programs had a good start, we opened as indicated Uupix at 29.53, up 4%. and Gvpix at 32.15, up 1.2%. Fdpix, that we didn't open is up 1.3%

IMS system:

Remains short QQQQ.

Industry leader:

Remains XAU

Profunds system:

Best trends are Gvpix, Pmpix, Enpix and Uupix. Keep an eye on Ujpix which seems ready to resume its uptrend.
We keep gvpix, uupix, enpix and bmpix (probably until Dec 22).

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Week 48

IMS system:

Short signal in QQQQ.
We have been working with this program in two areas:
- Integrating this system with our trend tracker program, results are really "exciting". Back testing of last 7 years successful, next step is to optimise parameters avoiding "over fitting".

- Optimising the parameters of the IMS program alone avoiding the so called over fitting, any optimisation should only improved past results as a whole (7 years) but also in individual years.

Profunds system:

Interestingly enough the Internet fund is the best trend, but other programs seems to indicate consolidation at least, so we pass. This week the fund with all the green lights are: uupix, gvpix, fdpix, and bmpix.
Bmpix has given so far the expected results. We keep it, tracking day by day its trend.
As we wanted some exposure to non us markets we will open tomorrow Uupix, and as a third fund in our portfolio we choose Gvpix although we certainly expect a lot of Fdpix.
As said in previous post, enpix is a long term position (we hope ! ).


Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Lead Industry:
This week the honor goes to $xau. Last week Iyt didn't have the result we expected, it had a negative variation of 0.1% in price.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Signal execution recap.

IMS system:

To keep program records straight, the closing long signal is 44.25 (Nov 21st), that is 1.2% profit.

In reality and as indicated, this signal was played using Tepix (see post Nov 15, at 29.73) which was closed on 22 nd Nov for 30.40 (previous post and pure luck!). Profit 2.3%. Tepix is a good vehicle to use in long signals of the IMS system, the profits increase but also losses.

Profunds system:

As posted in Nov 12, enpix was opened in Nov 13 (40.27).

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

New signal

IMS system:

Got a short signal to be executed Nov 21, eod. I think this is the shortest duration of a signal.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Week 47

IMS sytem:

Long QQQQ.

Profunds system:

Believe it or not the Internet fund continues in the top best trends, for this week the best are: inpix, tepix and cnpix which seems ready for another push up.

Industry leaders:

Playing around with my rotation models, put together the major US indexes and to my surprise the model works much better than when applied to exchanged funds. After the break out of Transports, that is the leading industry. We will follow the performance of IYT as a possible way to play that card.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Updated signals

IMS system:
Long

No so updated !!. I skipped to update the system and I found today that we got a long signal yesterday to be executed as usual eod. To keep consistency with the reporting system of the program, that date will be kept in the records, in reality I will be executing the signal today eod. BTW I will do it using Tepix as vehicle not QQQQ. That means that last signal was a looser (-4.6%), the second this year.

I will be working trying to integrate the IMS system with my trend program, see below, that has been long in QQQQ since Aug 16. However look how the trend strength is close to maximum levels, maybe further up move is limited. The aim is to validate the IMS system with the trend in this program, "eye balling" suggest it is a good idea but only back testing will give us a prove.

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Sunday, November 12, 2006

Week 46

IMS system:

You already know, it is short QQQQ.

Profunds system:

I was waiting the opportunity to be in oil and now we got a good trend. We expect to keep this position until end of Feb 2007. To be opened on monday eod.

Best trends are enpix, utpix, inpix and pmpix. Interestingly repix seems to bounce next week. Below you can see part of the trend analysis.


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Friday, November 10, 2006

Systems update

IMS system:

stays short in QQQQ

Profunds system:

As indicated, bmpix was opened (Oct 30 th, 43.83) and repix was closed (Nov 1 st, 53.50). As the programs to evaluate the funds, have increased in number we will continue running them in a weekly base to identify, if any, the best trend. Once the position is open, the exit point will be set and we will follow only opened positions during the week to quickly react to trend deterioration.
The second change we decided to try, is to keep open positions if their trend remains positive although maybe not the best (let run the winners). We will keep a maximum of 3 positions open.

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Week 45

IMS system:

Remains short in QQQQ.

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Profunds System:

Best trends Pmpix and Tcpix. We have made some changes in the way we trade Profunds, to be explained in a following post. Closed Repix and hold bmpix.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Week 44

IMS system:

Remains short QQQQ.

Profunds system:

Best trends are Bmpix, Tcpix, Utpix and Repix.
We will open a new position with bmpix and hold Repix.

(Precious metals, Pmpix and XAU seems ready to go up. Also improving: gvpix )

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Week 43

Profunds system:

Several funds had positive signals: Utpix, Phpix, Tcpix and Repix. We keep repix.

IMS system:

Remains short QQQQ.

Saturday, October 21, 2006

w. 42 Signal execution

Profunds system:

Cash to long repix , Oct 17 eod at 52.75.

IMS system:

Closed long Oct 19, at 41.90 (opened July 19). Profit: 14.4 %.
Max drowdown of this signal was -2.5%. The signal is now short at 41.90.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

New signal

IMS system:

Got a short signal for the QQQQ.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Week 42

IMS system:

Remains long in QQQQ. The indicators of the program are moving to the sell zone but not quite there yet. More up ahead ?.

Profunds system V.2:

I have incorporated another filter to (hopefully) measure the strength of a trend. To keep records as clear as possible I will indicate the best signals (V.1) and then the final result after filtering (V.2)

The best current trends are: BKPIX,BIPIX,LVPIX, REPIX and SLPIX. But after filtering, the last two are the result signals. Despite all the taking about the real state bubble, we will take REPIX as our next trade to be execute eod.

From now on I will indicate in parenthesis some side results that could be interesting.
(from V2. it seems that BMPIX and Sopix are bottoming, while SMPIX, TEPIX are in a topping process)

Friday, October 06, 2006

w. 40 signal execution

Closed tcpix at 24.40 . Loss 2.2 %.

We kept close check on the inverse funds shpix, ucpix and uipix but they never closed above the trigger prices indicated previously.

Next week: holidays !!!

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Waiting to close position

My broker close profunds positions,eod, of orders received 2 hrs before the close. As yesterday was an up day for tcpix, I am waiting until this limit of the first down day to place the order.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Week 40

Profunds system:

We got no signal, therefore we could keep open tcpix or go to cash. We decided to close it today, eod, because the strongest signals we got, although didn't past the filters, suggest a weakness in the tech market.
Those signals were:
ujpix (Japan), uupix (ultra emerging markets) and uipix (ultra international).

Interestingly the following funds will have a buy signal if closing prices are above the limit in parenthesis:
shpix (18.31), ucpix (17.07) and uipix (17.36). Those are inverse funds, which suggest the weakness mentioned.

IMS system:
Remains long QQQQ, this system is updated daily.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

w. 39 Signal execution

Profunds System:

Closed Cypix 31.97. Profit=1.1%
Opened Tcpix at 24.94, it is a pity that yesterday was an up day of 2% movement.

IMS system:
keeps its long signal for Nasdaq (vehicle : QQQQ)

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Week 39

Profunds system:

Best signal TCPIX to be executed next Monday eod.

IMS system:

Keeps long QQQQ. As said last week stops might be in place to lock profits, better yet is to hedge with puts.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Week 38

Although it is not expected a good performance of Cypix this week, the system keeps it because stronger signals, as WCPIX, didn´t pass all the filters.

The IMS system remains long in QQQQ. As this signal has accumulated interesting profits, in real trade stops are in place to lock profits.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

w. 37. Signal execution

Profunds System:
Closed Inpix at 78.22 . Profit=2.5%
Opened Cypix at 31.63

IMS System:

Still long QQQQ. potential profit 9.1 %. Max drawdown of this signal so far is 2.5%.

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Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Week 37

Profunds System:
Best signal CYPIX to be executed eod.


IMS System:
Keeps QQQQ long signal.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

w. 36. Signal execution

Profunds System:

Closed PMPIX at 48.67. Profit=6.5%

Opened Inpix at 76.30

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Week 36

Profunds System:

New signal: INPIX

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IMS system:
Keeps long signal for QQQQ.

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